In 2017, a benchmark stock assessment was completed. This assessment used a stock synthesis model to address a major source of uncertainty from previous assessments – the magnitude of croaker bycatch in South Atlantic shrimp trawls. However, due to conflicting trends in abundance and harvest, as well as other uncertainties, this assessment was not recommended for management use.

A traffic light analysis (TLA) is typically conducted each year to evaluate fishery trends and develop state-specific management actions (e.g. bag limits, size restrictions, time and area closures, and gear restrictions) when harvest and abundance thresholds are exceeded for three consecutive years. The name comes from assigning a color (red, yellow or green) to categorize relative levels of indicators that reflect the condition of the fish population (abundance metric) or fishery (harvest metric). For example, as harvest increases relative to the long-term mean, the proportion of green in a given year increases, and as harvest decreases, the amount of red in that year becomes more predominant. The TLA improves the management approach as it illustrates long-term trends in the stock and includes specific management recommendations in response to declines in the stock or fishery.

Similar to the benchmark assessment, recent TLA runs showed conflicting trends, with significant decreases in overall harvest but increases in adult abundance and some juvenile abundance. Based on these conflicting trends (theoretically, an increase in abundance should lead to an increase in harvest), the Technical Committee evaluated the TLA and recommended several adjustments, including incorporation of additional abundance surveys, application of age-length keys and length compositions to all abundance surveys to better estimate the number of adults, use of regional rather than coastwide metrics, a new reference time period, and a new triggering mechanism. These adjustments were made in Addendum III, which the Board approved in February 2020.

In October 2020, the TLA was presented to the Board using both the current and Technical Committee-recommended methods. The TLA showed similar results of declining adult abundance with declining harvest and triggered management action. The results of the Technical Committee recommended method, which included all proposed changes, triggered management action due to significant declines in harvest and adult abundance in the Mid-Atlantic (north of Virginia-North Carolina border) region. States that are considered non de minimis were required to begin immediate management action as outlined in Addendum III. This includes a recreational bag limit of 50 fish per person per day and a reduction in commercial harvest of 1% from the states 10-year average. Addendum III states these management measures must be in place for at least three years, before being reevaluated based on adult abundance metrics. State implementation plans for management measures were approved in early 2021 and all new management measures were enacted by the end of 2021.

The TLAs for both species were updated with data through 2023, and presented to the Board in August 2024. For Atlantic croaker, an abundance metric exceeded the 30% threshold in all four terminal years. Addendum III states, in this case, the TC must evaluate trends in the stock’s abundance to recommend to the Board whether triggered measures should remain in place or more restrictive measures should be considered. The Board agreed with the TC’s recommendation of maintaining the current management measures, due to the anticipation of results from the ongoing benchmark stock assessment within the next year.